This is a highly complex question rooted in issues of security, political ideology, and historical narrative, explaining the gap between Israel’s stance and that of the majority of the international community.
The term “ugly duck” likely refers to the perception that Israel’s rejection of the two-state solution is an unpopular and isolated position on the world stage.
Here are the main reasons why Israel, particularly its current government, rejects the unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state and opposes the two-state solution, despite widespread international support:
1. Core Security Concerns
This is the primary reason consistently cited by Israeli governments for opposing a Palestinian state established without a negotiated peace agreement:
- Military Threat: Israel argues that a Palestinian state, especially in the West Bank, could be used as a base for military or terrorist attacks by groups like Hamas. They believe the 1967 borders (the basis for the two-state solution) are strategically indefensible and would severely weaken Israel’s security.
- Preventing “Hamas-stan”: Israeli leaders frequently claim that a unilaterally formed Palestinian state would likely fall under the control of militant groups (as happened in Gaza) and become a “Hamas-stan” that poses a direct threat to Israeli citizens.
- Control over Vital Areas: Israel insists on maintaining military control over the borders, airspace, and the Jordan Valley in any future scenario, which contradicts the concept of a fully sovereign Palestinian state.
2. Territorial and Ideological Issues
- Jerusalem: Israel considers all of Jerusalem its undivided capital. A two-state solution requires sharing Jerusalem, with East Jerusalem serving as the Palestinian capital—a non-starter for the current Israeli government.
- Settlements: Hundreds of thousands of Israeli settlers live in the West Bank. The two-state solution demands the dismantling of settlements or the relinquishing of most of that territory, a politically toxic and ideologically unacceptable step for the Israeli right wing.
3. Domestic Political Landscape
- Right-Wing Dominance: Israeli politics is currently dominated by right-wing parties (like Likud and its partners) that are ideologically opposed to the idea of a Palestinian state. They believe in the Jewish historical right to the entire territory between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.
- Public Opinion: Following major attacks, Israeli public support for territorial concessions and a Palestinian state generally drops dramatically, reinforcing the government’s rejectionist position.
Countries like Spain, Canada, the UK, France, and Australia support and recognize Palestine based on a different set of principles:
- International Law: They view the occupation of Palestinian territories as illegal and support the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination.
- Saving the Two-State Solution: These countries believe that recognizing the Palestinian state is a necessary step to keep the two-state solution alive and exert pressure on Israel to return to negotiations on fair terms. They see it as a matter of justice and a path toward long-term stability.
In summary, Israel “prefers” its highly unpopular position (the “ugly duck”) because it is driven by deeply rooted security concerns, powerful domestic political ideology, and an unwillingness to relinquish control over territory it deems strategically and religiously essential. Conversely, the recognizing nations prioritize international law and the belief that only a two-state outcome can bring lasting peace.